简评|马克龙当选法国总统

实在抱歉……前段时间因为忙且懒,断更一个月了,现在继续吧。

当地时间 5 月 7 日晚、即北京时间 8 日凌晨,2017 年法国总统大选第二轮初步结果出炉,显示埃马纽埃尔·马克龙(Emmanuel Macron)以 66.06% 的得票率战胜获得 33.94% 选票的对手玛丽娜·勒庞(Marine Le Pen),当选法兰西第五共和国总统。

马克龙来自自创的中间派政党“前进!”(En Marche !),是一名富有的投资银行家,曾任奥朗德政府的经济财政部长一职,对欧盟、移民与全球化持积极态度。而他的对手勒庞则来自极右翼政党“国民阵线”,倡导贸易保护主义,反对全球化,主张严厉对待穆斯林难民。

英国《金融时报》专栏作家吉迪恩·拉赫曼曾写道:在一个又一个国家,最重要的政治分界不再处于左翼与右翼之间,而是处于民族主义者与国际主义者之间。本届大选法国传统左翼社会党与右翼共和党双双未进入第二轮选举无疑坐实了这一论断。这也可以看作自去年美国大选以来全世界反建制力量的又一次胜利。不过相对而言,拥有银行家与政府部长身份、政策务实而温和的马克龙比起勒庞更受建制派的欢迎。且看《经济学人》对勒庞的评价:

Ms. Le Pen, by contrast, offers bigotry mixed with make-believe. Vote for her, she suggests, and the state will shower you with goodies, paid for largely by being less generous to immigrants. She promises earlier retirement, bigger pensions, a short working week tax cuts and a top-notch hospital on your doorstep. In her belief that French people can prosper by working less and consuming more public services (although government already spends 56 % of GDP )…To voters of all stripes, she promises protection. Against the possibility of being laid off, if they have jobs. Against foreign competition. Against crime: she would add 40,000 prison beds, put 15,000 more cops on the street and let them shoot first if they feel threatened. Against terrorism: she would close mosques suspected of radicalism and deport foreigners suspected of jihadist ties. And against having unfamiliar neighbours: she would cut net migration from around 65,000 people a year to 10,000.

马克龙作为黑马,支持率一路上扬直至最终超过勒庞当选,说明了无论在何地极端主义都不受欢迎。即便是特朗普也是靠特殊的选举人制度上台,他本身也未获得真正的多数票。马克龙当选后,欧盟终于可以长松一口气,至少在未来五年法国还将与德国一起驱动欧盟继续前进。值得一提的是,德国国内另类选择党的支持率已跌回个位数,默克尔连任基本无大碍,德国还会继续充当维持欧盟的中坚力量。至于五年后法国国际主义者能否继续掌握政权,仅靠法德两家支撑的欧盟前途如何,近两年遍及欧美的民粹主义之风是愈演愈烈还是逐渐平息,这些都只能交由时间去回答。

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